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Traders expect bitcoin (BTC) choppiness to continue with a possible rotation to altcoins, as a major options expiry weighs on market dynamics in the festive week ahead.
“All eyes are on the massive expiry this Friday, where almost $20B notional across BTC and ETH options will expire,” Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a broadcast message early Tuesday. “This represents almost half the total OI on Deribit. We believe it’s quite possible especially if spot continues to range here and as option sellers continue to roll their shorts out.”
“Rolling” means that instead of letting their options expire, traders shift their positions to later expiration dates. This is often done to keep the trade active if they still believe in their market forecast.
High volatility can be good for option buyers because it increases the chance that the option will be “in-the-money” (profitable) at some point before expiry — creating profit for buyers.
“As BTC continues to struggle below 100k, we could also see alts start to play catch up again,” QCP said, adding that a similar trend was observed a month ago when bitcoin was trading at current price levels. The ether/bitcoin ratio bounced off a 0.032 support at the time, as reported, spurring movement in altcoins.
The crypto market often goes through cycles in which bitcoin leads the charge, followed by altcoins. Investors sitting on fresh market gains seek additional returns, and a flow of capital to altcoins leads to wild rallies in short periods.
Bitcoin is currently going through one of its worst December months so far, dampening a seasonally bullish period with a 2% drop over the past 30 days. Hopes of a “Santa rally” — where the asset tends to surge in the festive week — have been dented amid profit-taking and a cautious mood after weeks of price bumps.
Some are warning of further declines as the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate cuts for next year while stressing that it prohibits state holdings of BTC and doesn’t seek a change in the law to do so.
But a drop to the $90,000 level could spell renewed opportunity for market traders, FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk in an email.
“In a potential shock scenario, bitcoin could suddenly dip into the $70K area. However, there are more chances that a pullback to $90K in the next couple of weeks will be attractive enough for buyers to stop the sell-off,” Kuptsikevich said. “Markets continue to digest the Fed’s tougher tone, reinforced by the accumulated urge to lock in profits after a strong year.”
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